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Three Main Obstacles to an Atiku Presidency in 2019 by Demola Olanrewaju

Published on November 27, 2017

On Friday 24th of November, former vice-president of Nigeria and 2015 APC presidential primaries aspirant Atiku Abubakar announces that he has defects from the ruling party APC.

According official press statement released out by the Atiku’s media aides indicated the decision of Atiku to have left the party: saying that the party has failed Nigerian masses and also the Buhari’s led government and the APC party did not believes in the Nigerian youths who are the future of tomorrow.

With the recent defection of Atiku from the APC, which suggested that he’s making available for the next year general elections comes 2019. No doubt that an average Nigerian knows Atiku‘s ambition to is be Nigeria President and he’s not relenting on that ambition spirit.

As the situation stands now, many political scholar and analyst are gradually calculating chances of Atiku Abubakar in the 2019 general election, but an interesting, educative, resourceful and perceptive analyst on Atiku’s chances was pen down by political analyst & strategist and member of the opposition party PDP, Demola Olanrewaju.

Three Main Obstacles to an Atiku Presidency in 2019 by Demola Olanrewaju

In that educative thread titled : Three main obstacles to an Atiku Presidency in 2019 as I see it: Perception of Desperation in the Pursuit of Ambition, Opposition by Political/Business Elite and Inability to Divide/Attract Core Northern Votes.

There are other obstacles but these three are paramount.

#Thread

Three main obstacles to an Atiku Presidency in 2019 as I see it: Perception of Desperation in the Pursuit of Ambition, Opposition by Political/Business Elite and Inability to Divide/Attract Core Northern Votes.

There are other obstacles but these three are paramount.#Thread

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Atiku’s presidential ambition started in March 1993 at the SDP Convention in Jos where he contested against MKO Abiola and Babagana Kingibe, coming third in the primaries despite being backed by the powerful Shehu Musa Yar’Adua PDM structure.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

10 years after in 2003, Atiku was still scheming to be President as the Media was awash with calls for Obasanjo to take the Mandela option and serve for only one term, which Sunny Odogwu insisted was the agreement OBJ had made with the North.

Atiku hoped to benefit from this.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

The rift was made worse when in April 2002, Tony Anenih arranged Obasanjo’s declaration for second term but excluded Atiku and OBJ also confirmed that he would announce his running mate only after he had won the presidential ticket of the PDP.

Atiku felt slighted.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Few days after, Obasanjo spokesman confirmed that Atiku would indeed be running with OBJ but Atiku was already plotting his own political future, along with several PDP Governors who felt Obasanjo had become too powerful in moving against many of them with the Corruption mantra.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

The Friday before the PDP convention in 2003, Atiku granted an interview to BBC where he claimed he had three options politically: to run by himself for President, to run with OBJ or to run with Ekwueme.

1st option was plausible because 3 new parties had then been registered.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Obasanjo suddenly was on the ropes and he wisely decided to beg his Vice. Some say he knelt down to beg Atiku, along with his wife Stella and Atiku extracted many commitments from the General.

Obasanjo couldn’t sleep throughout the 2003 convention until he was announced.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

https://twitter.com/demolarewaju/status/934683881512603648

On July 27, 2010, 17 out of the 19 Northern Governors met and insisted on upholding the zoning principle.

A group was soon formed by Adamu Ciroma called Northern Political Leaders Forum to screen the four Northerners who were contesting and Atiku was endorsed by them.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Riding on the endorsement of the Northern cabal on November 22, 2010, Atiku made this statement

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.”

A quote from JFK in 1962 which in this context signalled an all-out war against GEJ.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Another controversial statement often falsely attributed to Buhari was actually made by Lawal Kaita, a longterm Atiku associate in an interview with Pini Jason published in the Vanguard edition of October 5, 2010.

Next tweet will quote the context of the statement for clarity.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Kaita in 2010 said:

“Anything short of a Northern President is tantamount to stealing our Presidency. Jonathan has to go and he will go. Even if he uses the incumbency power to get his nomination on the platform of the PDP, he would be frustrated out.”

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Kaita further said:

“The North is determined, if that happens, to make the country ungovernable for President Jonathan or any other Southerner who finds his way to the seat of power on the platform of the PDP against the principle of the party’s zoning policy.”

End of quote.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Atiku lost at the primaries to GEJ, the Northern establishment however went on to back Buhari but GEJ won, even in Adamawa but largely due to the efforts of Gov. Nyako who had delivered Adamawa delegate votes to GEJ at the primaries.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Nyako has worked hard for GEJ both at the primaries and the elections as sitting Governor in Adamawa, against his own kinsman Atiku.

GEJ made a mistake to have supported Bamanga Tukur’s humiliation of Nyako consequently and Nyako eventually left for the APC.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

https://twitter.com/demolarewaju/status/934687989929857024

https://twitter.com/demolarewaju/status/934688951692091392

https://twitter.com/demolarewaju/status/934689395894030337

https://twitter.com/demolarewaju/status/934689824606474241

As to dividing the North, why is this important?

Because contrary to popular thinking which sees zones as battleground, look at states and you’ll come up with three main battleground states: Lagos, Kano and Kaduna.

Nobody has ever lost all three and become President of Nigeria.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Obasanjo in 99 lost Lagos but won Kano and Kaduna.

In 2003, he won all three.

Yar’Adua in 2007 won Kano and Kaduna but lost Lagos and won.

2011, GEJ won Lagos, split Kaduna and lost Kano and won.

2015: GEJ lost all three and lost ultimately.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

Lagos is firmly with Tinubu but Kano and Kaduna swing mainly on one base issue with other issues coming secondary – religious considerations swing these states and Atiku isn’t perceived in the North as a core Muslim by many fundamentalists who hold religion dearly.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

In other states, especially in the South, Atiku is the most marketable candidate.

Question then becomes: can he do better than GEJ did in the Southern States especially SS and SE?

I doubt this.

The key therefore remains splitting the votes from NW.

But let’s consider the NC.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

NC has the widest range of ethnicities in Nigeria and is the zone most likely to swing either way – but always mostly swings with the core North every single time since 1999 and even as far back as 1983 with Plateau/Solomon Lar as the exception.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

To assume the NC will revolt against the core North is to underestimate the strength of Northern solidarity.

We made same assumption in 2015 and found it to be false.

Best bet here is to hope to split votes and gain enough to supplement huge numbers from elsewhere.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

So Atiku looks strong as a candidate but his path to victory has obstacles.

How he approaches these obstacles will determine how 2019 plays out but with the benefit of his run in 2007 where he picked only 2.6m votes, I can only hope 2019 augurs well for him.

End.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

The business elite will definitely go for Atiku. You are right about the other two.

— caj (@chuksyj) November 26, 2017

Between Buhari and Atiku, Atiku is better for business.

The problem is the fear of the Elite in those circles that Atiku will split their empires and give half of it to his cronies.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

I agree with the historical perceptive of this thread of Atiku presidential ambition. It not just perception, he is desperate to lead the country from his antecedent of cross carpeting when elections is at the corner. The Business elite will work for Atiku presidential ambition

— Olanrewaju (@ezekiel_ao) November 26, 2017

Atiku has an eye on being Nigeria’s richest man as well as president. You can’t have both.

Some will support him if he is the only option to Buhari and hope he doesn’t sideline them.

The ones with much to lose will invest in both him and Buhari.

— 'Demola Olarewaju (@DemolaRewaju) November 26, 2017

He can't have both of them as you said. I believe most of them will support him because he has jettison his richest man ambition for a presidential ambition. He is also going to work greatly to the advantage of business men because of his capitalist experience.

— Olanrewaju (@ezekiel_ao) November 26, 2017

“Perception is not reality & it may lead you to the wrong place” @atiku in my opinion has been severally misrepresented by some like you Demola.I see him as a unifier,bridge builder & a Statesman.Nothing wrong in a man pursuing his ambition.Buhari did & succeeded after 4 attempts

— Amaopusenibo Shedrack Fubara 🇨🇦🇳🇬 (@ShedrackFubara) November 26, 2017

https://twitter.com/yarkafanchan/status/934709146687102978

https://twitter.com/iykfortune/status/934689419759640576

Of all the obstacles you listed, this "Perception of Desperation in the Pursuit of Ambition" caught my attention and conviction which will be widely adopted by the media and it's all in the bid to cash out on what was laid done by OBJ.

— President Ikemba🇳🇬 (@IkeokwuChidozie) November 26, 2017